This was sent in some time ago by a Special Correspondent, but there have been so many other things going on that I have not been able to get around to posting it. I think it is a good topic for discussion and this is a thoughtful and insightful writeup from someone who has considerable experience from which to base their estimates.
Though there is no figure placed on the number of Scientologists, my estimate is 25,000-30,000 worldwide. These are people who may still do an extension course to maintain appearances, buy a book when it is released or attend an event — though not necessarily go on course or actively engage in auditing. The hard core is more like 15,000 composed of SO, staff and those actively on lines. These figures are based on the number of IAS members and the numbers that show up for events. I am interested in others’ thoughts about this.
I find the membership question interesting and have some opinions based on my four decades of experience with the CofS. My speculation is the ratio of committed members versus OPENLY independent or disaffected ex-members is 4:1. BUT, the ratio of under-the radar members and ex-members to committed members is 25:1. This is extrapolation from my own circle of friends, family and acquaintances.
There is an ENORMOUS underground of SINOs (Scientologists in Name Only) and ex-Scientologists who just don’t care anymore. They don’t care to protest, post, or criticize or they don’t go on course, get auditing, or donate to the causes. They’ve left Scientology behind, gone on with their lives and for the most part don’t give it any air-time. They know how to pick their way through the mine-field to keep important relationships going with the committed members in their lives.
The Scientology organization is gradually getting backed into a corner and one day the hammer will fall. Then a great cry will go out for help from the membership and the silence will be deafening. You can’t treat people the way Scientology treats its OWN people and expect them to have your back when the bullets start to fly.
The Ideal Org program will be what destroys the network financially. Sure, when you own real estate paid for with other people’s money (Scientology’s International Landlord) it doesn’t matter if you sell at a loss; you still get to pocket the money and it’s all profit to you! When these Ideal Org’s fail, because it costs more to maintain them and keep them open than they produce in revenue, they close, get sold at fire-sale prices and Int Landlord pockets the left-overs. This is Scientology’s version of resource extraction and we all know how well that strategy is working globally. Pretty soon there are no more resources at any price and the environment is too degraded to recover. That’s Scientology’s future.
Internationally, there is an attempt to garner new members (at least for high-priced Flag services) from the Pacific Rim and Russia because that’s where the wealth is and Sea Org staff from Eastern Europe and Central and South America because everyone there wants to come to America or Europe. Many younger Sea Org staff are drawn from this pool of recruits and the the names you see on Flag’s completion lists are increasingly Russian, Chinese and Taiwanese. One thing Scientology is REALLY good at (maybe better than anything else except buying and renovating real estate) is figuring out how to get money. Spending it wisely is another matter though and that is going to get them in the end.
Roger From Switzerland Thought says
I’ll see how I’ll react then when it happens ! 🙂
MoreANONthan you says
These are great questions Anon.
However I would add these questions:
Do you think it was right that L. Ron Hubbard ordered ASI to be set-up as a for-profit corporation to sell his books, then ordered all the churches of Scientology around the world to buy his books from ASI so that he could collect immense royalties from church operations?
Do you think it was right for L. Ron Hubbard to order that suitcases of cash from church operations (about one million dollars per suitcase) be repeatedly hand delivered to him by Sea Org and ASI personnel while Sea Org staff were fed poor quality food and paid next to nothing for their 15 hour workdays?
Do you think it was right for a staff of approximately 100 bonded Sea Org staff to spend the better part of one year cutting L. Ron Hubbard’s name with razor blades out of tens of thousands of documents in filing cabinets all over the world that demonstrated beyond any possible doubt that Ron personally ordered and orchestrated the Snow White program?
If you chose to answer, try to avoid slipping into L. Ron Hubbard’s valence with nasty ad hom and help me understand how you separate what is known about the church today, versus what is also known about the church under Hubbard’s era.
Mike, I wonder how the Church is dealing with the demands of Obamacare. How is it insuring all of its employees? Or are they just signing up for Medicare? Are tax payers subsidizing the Church through it’s use of subsidized health care for its employees? I wonder about this because I know of prominent Scientologist in my area that are very vocal in their opposition to Obamacare. Is it because of mental health care parity in the insurance coverage or is it because to the potential cost to the Churches?
Jane Doe says
RK, In more than one book I’ve read from ex SO such as Marty and others, it was said that SO staff were encouraged to get on public assistance, which in Calif is “Medi-Cal” and in other states is called “Medicaid.” His exchange is criminal: he uses them as slaves and doesn’t pay much if anything (criminal exchange) and then tells them to go live on the public dole (again criminal exchange.) In the Headley book and other books, the large number of SO abortions were all done on the stat’s dime using public assistance to pay for it. One of the heads of an abortion clinic even commented publicly on it and then DM had the Int females go to a different clinic to avoid hers… but the abuse of public funds for abortions continued only more “under ground: after that clinic head spoke out publicly about it. I don’t know what the Scns rationale on Obamacare is.
LRH encouraged org execs to get org staff of gov welfare programs. Forget the LRH policy/F.O. where he did that.
Rory Medford says
C of S teaches just one way to skin a cat and if its NOT their way you are toast, an outcast and a squirrel because you are not toeing the line LRH and COB has drawn. It’s really a trap and detrimental for your soul and health. It is truly a CULT with all the trimmings and decorations as well as smoke and mirrors to go along with it. Truly a circus and NOW the laughing stock of philosophy and religion.
Mike Rinder says
Fundamentalists. No different than the fundamentalists of any other belief system. They have ALL the answers. And the ONLY answers.
Jose Chung says
This could be a new Board Game.
But my thoughts are that Scientology has had it’s “Pearl Harbor”
which was PRed into a non event or win. “Look, we are attacked means we are winning !”
Miscavige is running out scientologists from scientology. Remember this SP indicator on SP PTS course : “an SP will run out good staff”. This is a picture of management in 1990. With some more picture underneath. Miscavige has run them ALL out. Or is there an exception? Mike, you knew them all, you can testify their fate.
So, this is the ratio on the management. If it’s the same in the field, it’s very bad for the church.
Jane Doe says
Thanks FB for the pictures of real people in earlier times and the followup of who went t jail, who committed suicide or died, and etc. But why did Heber go to Jail in Madrid? Did he really do something wrong or was it trumped up?
Mike Rinder says
He made the mistake of associating himself with the IAS.
Yep. That was it. Many years later (early/mid 2000’s), I met with Spain’s P.M. to get the final stuff thrown out of the courts. It was a PR CF all the way ’round.
Who is more foolish?
The Fool?…….or the fool who follows?
Keep Scientology Withering
Re: Foolproof, Dec 3, 2013 at 11:38 pm & Mike Rinder, Dec 3, 2013 at 11:55 pm
The so called subjective phenomena can be and has been successfully studied using statistically valid scientific methods in fields like Sociology, Psychology and Parapsychology.
The way to do it is using triple or double blind experiments. A well designed triple or double blind experiment can identify the placebo effect vs. the non-placebo effect.
Here is an example of a scientific study of subjective phenomena.
Statistical analysis: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7416/extref/nature11467-s1.pdf (1.5 MB)
Here is an example of a scientific study of non-subjective paranormal abilities: unconscious precognition.
Abstract and statistical analysis: http://www.scientificexploration.org/journal/jse_11_2_radin.pdf (280 KB)
People using advanced FZ tech are reporting des-occlusion of paranormal abilities. (I’m one of them).
Mike Rinder says
Good luck with this.
When you have the triple or double blind experiments shout them from the rooftops. Would love to see scientific proof that any sort of “advanced tech” can produce produce measurable, repeatable results.
Absolutely. I’ve been a “Scientologists” for almost 50 years. Audited at CC, S.O., NED trained etc. In all of this time I’ve read about cleared theta clears, exteriorzation with full perception, traveling to the center of the sun etc.etc. Not once have I seen any evidence of it. It’s not that I don’t “believe it”, I tend to think these types of things most likely are possible, it’s just that I’ve never seen it. As soon as someone can tell me what I’m holding in my hand from another room, repeatably, than I’ll know it’s true. It’s not a matter of belief at all. It either is, or it’s not.
And if it is, show me. It’s like Big Foot. Find it, put it in a zoo or a museum. Then I’ll “believe” it.
Morris Adams says
The human thinking is very good at correlation and poor at separating cause and effect. The result is exemplified in this threads discussion on the “faith” of scientology
Faith is belief of something in the absence of facts or supporting evidence.
Science is knowledge and pursuit of that knowledge, in the form of observed facts and testable explanations of phenomena in the universe. They are mutually exclusive! Modern science has rigorous standards (eg. reproduciblity, statiscally relavance, blind controls etc) Scientology has never been tested in a scientifically relevant manner. Therefore it is not science. Furthermore it has made numerous scientific claims,(eg application of which in Narconon). None have been validated. Claims of an observed change after an action is a correlative observation not an observed fact. For example 22% of breast cancers will undergo spontaneous regression. Ascribing a single occurance like a persons cancer regression to something like auditing is as ludicrious as ascribing it to eating twinkies. The same goes for the so called, “improved conditions” like the introvert example etc. It is just as valid to say the improvement is because the person is no longer home watching TV eating twinkies. As far as not being able to measure “gains”: Parameters of nearly anything can be quantified (even factors that contribute to the state of “happiness”:) or as mentioned paranormal occurance, and contributing factors tested. Saying scientology isn’t/can’t be rigorously tested in such a manner is a poor excuse, and often untrue. In conclusion Scientology is faith because it makes claims that are not substantiated by fact and explanation has not been tested in controlled experiments. Ascribing a “win” to scientology is fine for the faithful….. but not scientifically valid
Mike Rinder says
Intelligent comment. Thanks.
Katniss Everdeen says
Belated thanks for the post, Mike. Last week on ESMB, someone was trying to get a count of current Co$ Scientologists. Apparently in 2009, DM ordered 30K of the new Mark VIII Ultras built (according to Marc Headley) under the assumption that each Scientologist would buy 2 of them.
In response to this, I asked whether this would be a required purchase for Sea Org and staff. To me, this seemed a very legitimate question, because I have a very close friend who was in the SO who’d joined up to be able to afford his Bridge (thinking he’d get services for free or reduced cost). Turned out he got jack shit (besides a freeloader debt when he routed out).
So it seems perfectly reasonable to ask whether the 15k koolaid drinkers included SO, or whether DM had just given up on ever getting them to buy the Mark VIII Ultras and was planning on fleecing 15,000 public. But no one really seemed to understand why I was asking the question. Hopefully someone here will be able to enlighten me….
In any event, this was nearly 5 years ago. Since then, much has happened – Debbie Cook, Kay Rowe, Luis Garcia, Mosey Rathbun…… And more public refusing to go to events where the entrances are locked, and the only way out of the event is down a long hallway full of regges.
So even if DM was planning on 15K active public and NOT including the SO in his calculation, I suspect that he has 1/3 that figure now. IF that…..
Well, ok, but people can observe changes in others. Let’s take Grade 0 for instance. The guy before he did Grade 0 was a quiet introverted type who could not talk readily to others. After he does his Grade 0 all can suddenly observe that he is speaking freely with anyone on anything. So the idea of subjective then becomes more objective in that others can see the obvious gains this person has made. I have observed many many people undergo the exact changes prescribed in the EPs of levels, as I am sure, so have you. Maybe now in DM’s out-tech Church the gains are not so obvious but I have observed such.
As to the OT levels above VIII LRH himself said these are written up in unissued note form and I know people who have seen if not read the file where they were contained. Where they are now is anybody’s guess but they did exist. DM doesn’t want any real OTs around and as for money he is making enough in other guises.
Mike Rinder says
I agree with you about being able to observe changes in people doing the grades. And I certainly agree that there is value in this auditing. I just don’t think it is scientifically measurable or quantifiable. And I don’t think it SHOULD BE. How the hell do you measure happiness or peacefulness or joy?
As for the OT levels, sorry, they just don’t exist. You will have to come to grips with the fact that some of the things LRH said were just not true. Observe what you see, don’t just believe it is true because he said it.
Morris Adams says
I basically love everything you say and do.
If you have watched Claudio Lugli’s videos while he was at the DROR mission he said that the old OT5 and OT6 are real OT levels. In my opinion, they are a couple of real OT levels (I checked out on them many years ago, but never ran them.). I think they are available on the internet from Wikileaks. Someone would do these after you finish Solo NOTs.
People were having trouble with the old OT5 and OT6 in the seventies because of what’s there on NOTs. But I could see a number of reasons why DM would not want to release them: 1) Not enough income from them; 2) If they did make someone really OT to any degree, DM would be in more and more trouble – from a real OT. He definitely does not want anyone to really go OT. He would be finished in a second.
Mike Rinder says
Thanks. If you want a whole raft of “OT Processes” read Creation of Human Ability.
Morris Adams says
Right. I think some of the processes on the old 5 and 6 ARE from Creation of Human Ability.
Mike Rinder says
Morris Adams says
My main point, though, is that real OT levels DO exist. They have been around since the late 60’s. But DM is not about to have anything to do with them.
Mike Rinder says
Since the 50’s….
Mike Rinder says
And just FYI — it was NOT DM that changed the Grade Chart with NOTs. It was LRH. Miscavige didnt “get rid of the real OT levels.” LRH designated NOTs as OT V and Solo NOTs as OT VII. He, as far as I know, said nothing about the “old OT 4-7” though this is a common event in Scientology history. Processes were abandoned regularly and replaced by “newer discoveries”. COHA is not part of modern Scientology. Neither is 3DXX or Goals Processing. Creative Processing was abandoned entirely. Yet, look at what COHA contains. This isn’t Miscavige’s doing.
Morris Adams says
You don’t have to publish this one. But that’s still not my point. My point is that there ARE actual LRH OT LEVELS – real ones that he issued after OT3. They are available for anyone REALLY finishing OT 7 (something that I believe is impossible for anyone in the RCS). So some of the people reading this blog should not give up hope that there are no real OT Levels.
Mike Rinder says
It’s OK. And you are not really getting what I am saying. But that’s OK. There are a lot of viewpoints expressed here and it’s what in my view makes things interesting.
Morris Adams says
I missed your comment about LRH designating NOTs,etc as OT5, 6 and 7. I never heard this before. When I did NOTs in the early 80’s I don’t think it was called OT5 (but I may be wrong).
Michael Bennitt says
Wendy M says
Michael Bennitt – you do amazing stuff to get the truth out. Thank you!!
I notice there are quite a few comments here on case gain being “subjective” and Scientology doesn’t deliver OT powers i.e. “walking on water”. Now, yes gains are subjective but they are uniform from person to person as when one attests to something thousands of others have done so as well, so to say the gains are “subjective” is implying that you can sort of “make up” whatever you like to attest to, which is patently not true and a dilution of the facts and an attempted denigration of those gains as I see it at the moment – maybe there was no intention to do that but that is the way it comes across. As to “OT powers” no actual real OT levels have yet been released by DM’s Church (which is another story in itself of course) so to say that Scientology has not delivered on this then that is also true in so far as no actual OT levels have been made available to public. (The New OTVIII on Freewinds is a watered-down version of what the original OTVIIII was as I read elsewhere.) One is not expected to walk on water by doing pre-OT levels but in theory and practice the pre-OT levels of 1-7 are designed to set one up for the eventual “walking on water”. I did “old” OTVII (7) and I can tell you that OT powers are real and measurable – only thing is that they didn’t last because of the NOTs factor but once that is fully and completely done then one can do the original OT levels and – have a little “walk on water”. So we should get our facts right here.
Mike Rinder says
Trying to argue that Scientology produces scientific results is silly. There is NOTHING WRONG with “subjective” results. Frankly, there can ONLY be subjective results in a search for self-awareness (which is what Scientology is, or at least purports to be). That there is some sort of “attest” to a pre-ordained accomplishment that everyone reads on the Grade Chart is no guarantee of anything other than the fact that people can read and know what they are supposed to achieve. As for the so-called “real” OT levels that have not been released. They do not exist. Sorry to break the news to you. If Miscavige had such things they would have LONG since released them as he is losing his whales as they have nowhere to go except round in circles on his “redo the Bridge” program, but more importantly, think of the MONEY He could make.
Sorry, Scientology is what it is.
And there is plenty about it that is perfectly good and doesnt NEED to be overhyped that it will create people who can walk on water, see through walls or never get colds. What about making someone happier about themselves or freed from the stress of life or with a greater understanding of why they react to things a certain way. These are all very desired things. They are all totally subjective. And they are all perfectly valid objectives and achievements.
Leave the hype to the fundamentalists. It’s one of the sure signs of being a cult member (fundamentalist)….
Foolproof I agree with you. My experience: hide it but use it. You cannot win arguments about OT. Some day we have to gather and sort out the traps and continue to free ourselfs. My opinion in short: the degrade started with the alteration of NOTs. 1982 to 1984. Have a look on the time track late 84. Greetings.
Mike in all fairness, you seem to want to slant scientology as a subjective philosophy, a system based on belief.
but that is not what hubbard sold. he sold certainty, technology—–not philosophy—–technology……..he claimed scientific research was done………he discovered the true origin of things as fact………..he was not handed the “divine” knowledge by some higher being……..he made “scientific discoveries” …………that is what Hubbard sold……hence “scien” along with the “tology”.
to turn around now and act like it’s been posited as a belief system all along is not right.
Hubbard never asked anyone to take it on faith.
Mike Rinder says
Whatever, call this the Mike Rinder version of Scientology if that will make you happy.
I disagree with the claims of scientific certainty and only one-ness.
The actual derivation of the word is from scio meaning knowledge.
I am not trying to pretend that it has been POSITED as a belief system, I am saying it IS a belief system. You have to have faith that Hubbard was right about everything. He and fundamentalist Scienbtologists try to pretend that there is no faith involved, but that is clearly untrue.
I just don’t happen to think there is anything wrong with faith.
For me any doubt or need for faith ended once I entered the auditing room alone with an e-meter. The meter has no stake in game and doesn’t tell lies.
I had studied what LRH said I would find if I was willing to look. So I took a look at my materials and I carefully watched my meter and sure enough I found for myself what LRH said would be there. The needle on the meter became completely alive an active when I focused my attention. Continuing on with the process the meter needle confirmed (F/N’d) the release of charge I knew I was experiencing for myself.
Some will say it’s all just the power of suggestion, Sci-Fi nonsense or will diminish it in some other way, but once you get in there for yourself there is no mistaking what is going on and at that point any need for faith is left way back in your rear view mirror.
You do realize that it is more than just suggestion, that you were actually told up front and in detail exactly what would happen in session? And you had been prepped for this very thing for years beforehand.
Are you then surprised by that thing happening?
It’s like attributing great effects to a bride being happy on her wedding day.
She’s supposed to be happy, Disney has been pummeling that into her for her entire childhood and teenage years.
Mike, you forget that Scn (from mid 60’s onward) was built on the hype (from LRH) of OT. Having X-ray vision, exterior full perceptions, immortality, et al. Without that, it is just another self help group. Which the Boss EMPHATICALLY wanted to avoid as it wouldn’t drive membership & GI.
Mike Rinder says
Why do you think I forget that?
Sorry Mike. Browser trouble squished your comment in with another on my screen. Disregard.
Jane Doe says
Being exterior with full perception is not just hype.
Jane, being able to produce that situation stably using scn processes (as advertised by LRH) IS hype AND a bald faced lie. Handling amnesia on the Whole Track is ALSO a lie for OT 8, as advertised by LRH. ANY OT (not in your head – 1D) CAUSE over ACTUAL MEST (objective) claims are also B.S. Basically gut LRH claims for Clear and above and that is all you have left of the subject.
Jane Doe says
Iilby, are you not a Scn? It sounds like you’ve never done any auditing or training. Well LRH was right when he said what is true for you is true for you. I was just giving my truth and don’t appreciate your huge attack. I have been ext with full perception many times. I don’t have it on command that I can do it on command now, but that doesn’t bother me. I enjoy the OT perceptions and abilities that I do have and I don’t invalidate them just because someone like you comes along and says that they cannot exist. They do for me and I don’t have anything to prove to you. I can have my wins whether you can or not.
“Being exterior with full perception is not just hype.”
This is trivially simple, takes about 10 minutes of your time. If you indicate you’re up for it, I’ll share an email address with you and give you the street address and exact GPS co-ordinates of my house. You can study the location on Google.
But you can’t see the inside of the house from Google, so I want you to go exterior with full perception and tell me the title of the third book from the left on shelf 3 of my bookcase.
Jane Doe says
Splog the times I’ve been ext with full perception were times of key out either in life or in session. Reading your antagonistic and invalidative make-wrong of a post does not key me out in the least, so no I won’t be doing your little coffee-shop experiment. Any abilities and wins one gets from session or applying tech to his/her life are personal and I for one don’t feel like I have to prove anything to you or anyone else. Sorry to ruin your little game.
Defensive much? I see I touched a nerve and so did the other poster.
Exterior with full perception was promoted and sold by Hubbard as a technical fact, something achievable with exact specific characteristics that necessarily could be verified objectively. There is absolutely nothing wishy-washy about exterior with full perception as defined by Hubbard – it either happens or it doesn’t – and trying to avoid the question by making it all subjective and personal is a glaring outpoint of note.
Think about this just for a minute:
exterior with full perception is a total game changer for the entire human race. If you can do this, why would you keep it to yourself? I don’t buy the excuse that the world out there isn’t ready for it – that just smacks of cop-out and a very convenient re-definition of what Hubbard sold.
I don’t doubt that you experienced something, and that is a treasured experience for you. I do submit that what you experienced is highly unlikely to be exterior with full perception as such is usually understood by scientologists. This is a very old topic going back centuries much favoured by mystics, but in all that time not one single person has ever managed to demonstrate the ability conclusively to someone else. Every piece of evidence offered is anecdotal notes that are easily ascribed to some other more mundane cause. Same goes for past lives.
When you really look at this topic in the harsh brutal light of reality, the inescapable conclusion is that the state, as defined by Hubbard, probably does not exist at all.
I’m sorry if this offends you, the truth hurts and virtually everyone exiting CoS goes through this very painful process. It’s like a bad divorce and if you didn’t try to hold onto some treasured part of it for as long as possible then you wouldn’t be human.
Mike Rinder says
Alan — I find your tone to be inappropriate. No need to be so condescending. Clearly Jane Doe is expressing her views. You may disagree, but don’t be so condescending towards her. Only I can do that 🙂
I said STABLY exterior with full perception as PER LRH was hype (along with all else I CORRECTLY listed). You not issed what I wrote. Either because of being rushed or, out axiom 38..
Splog you’re not going to believe Jane or anyone else actually experienced anything they say they have. You’re invested in a make-nothing-of-them game.
It is very likely that if Jane were to “prove” exteriorization in some way to you, you would either run in terror, become very ill at the stomach or simply faint on the spot.
Wow. Inval much today?
You do not know me at all, how do you know what my intentions are or what my reactions will be?
I put a very simple line in the sand. Hubbard says X exist and is verifiable, Jane Doe responds that in her experience this is true. I said to prove it. Prove that exactly what Hubbard said is true, not some alter-is’ed and redefined version of it turning it from objective to subjective.
I walked away from cos because of these attitudes and the eternal squirming to get out of just simply demonstrating as true that thing which they sell.
Jane Doe says
Thank you K Francis!
splog: “simply demonstrating as true that thing which they sell”
splog, Jane seems to have demonstrated it to herself to her own satisfaction. If you’re so interested in the proof, why not walk the walk? And if you don’t want to, then why criticize others who have?
I did walk the walk, for 27 years. There’s no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow.
Exterior with full perception, and the amazing OT powers, are the carrot that Hubbard dangled in front of all of us – they comprise the entire goal of the bridge. I have proved, to me own personal satisfaction over a very long period of time that it simply does not work, that there are no Clears or OTs, and that it is snake oil.
If you desire for Jane to have the right to express her opinion and to state that exterior with full perception is not hype, then will you extend the same courtesy to me?
Foolproof, I agree with your take on this. I am currently on audited NOTs and I don’t see how it is possible to reach OT states while anyone is still under the influence of this part of the case. The road is definitely barred right at this point of the Bridge. The gains are remarkable all by themselves at this level but I see now that NOTs is a preparatory action that fully sets one up to make it possible to make a huge forward push on the old OT levels you mentioned. And even if someone didn’t move on to the old OT levels completing NOTs is necessary in my mind just to lead a full and happy life. (This is what I believe and I am not attempting to sell anyone on it as a fact.)
I agree 100%.
Chuck Beatty says
One of Scientology’s most hard core critics, wisely suggested Scientology ought to downside, meaning consolidate itself. His very helpful honest suggestion was that it should
stop overstretching itself.
Hubbard’s driven this overextension, and hype mentality, I read his ASI “advices” traffic, where he criticized ASI promotion as not using enough “hype”.
Class 5 orgs are not allowed, per policy, from ever being closed, yet some Canada orgs have been closed, no staff, for months and years, off and on, already.
Scientology has to face its numbers, consolidate itself, downsize, and figure out how to give back its wealth to those that gave donations to Scientology, and who deserve their money back.
Idle Morgue says
I have been to several Class 5 Morgues the past few years…believe me..you are being very generous as to your calculations of members and staff
. I can tell you before the basics…there was NO new people coming in and the few public that came in left…then it really dried up and got worse when the Ideal Org went full speed fleecing…
There are constant witch hunts and the few staff that are there are changing posts like Miscavige changes John Lobb shoes!
Several thoughts, Mike. I’ve never seen Int or Cont Finance bail out an org debt. Not even some kind of red-alert OSA pushed-to-solve giant legal flap. Orgs are ALWAYS made to find the money in their own field. Once the money goes up, in Scilonland, it never ever ever comes back down.
Idk how many here remember this, but the Int Finance Office used to call this “BIG VAULT”. They ever used to send out cartoons, telling Finance Office staff they had to “feed BV”. Seriously, lol.
Int Landlord holds the deeds, but add to that OSA holds documents of each local Board of Directors all pre-signing undated letters of resignation. Definitely makes the locals have 0 control over their environment, eh?
We have access to Real Estate databases here-MLS etc and have been really enjoying watching the decrease in values of these properties. Boy, are these guys sitting in a hole. Big time!
Also, just as an aside, here in our outpost, we have our own ratio. The number of exes actively fighting vs passively watching while providing support/cover. Our ratio reduces down to 5:1-although we have a pretty good-sized team. You even met us on the battlefield in ’08 or ’09, lol. Funny we are now on the same side. 😉
I think, based on the above data and the hundred or more people we know who are out and not announced, that the numbers overall are at most 25,000 still in or pretending to be in, with at least 1/2 pretending. More are becoming disaffected every day.
Even with all those people imprisoned at Flag, they couldn’t get more than a few thousand to show up for the “greatest release since Dianetics.” All of the “still in” would have made an appearance at Flag or at their local org. Between Flag and the LA area they didn’t even get 10K.
The celbs were very absent. None of them are backing up miscavige in public. Their careers now seem more important than covering miscavige’s ass. There is nothing the Co$ or miscavige can do to fix it. HE has killed their PR for good. A suppressive act, according to Mr. Hubbard.
The monster is in its death throes and the tech is now free to be used as people see fit.
There won’t be a substitute monster, or a new and improved monster to amount to anything.
Michael Bennitt says
Jane Doe says
LDWm Yes I noticed that too that not many celebrities were there for the biggest event since the Dianetics unveil. Oh yes, Dm’s bromance brother, Cruise, was there on the front row wildly clapping, but the only other celeb was John Travolta, who looked uncomfortable and not quite on board in that picture. But where were Alley and Elfman and others? Jenna and Kirstie are quite the little celebrity Nazi SS enforcers. Jenna black pred and ruined Milton Katselas’ reputation and Alley was horrid to Leah when she left (and before Leah had even spoken a word about the church and before she was declared.) So why aren’t those two female brown nosers seen at the huge GAT II event and Super Power opening? My guess is that they are starting to wake up and have realized how bad for their careers being connected to DM is, and thus they are distancing themselves. Travolta knows that DM has blackmail material on him (from his Sec Checks) and so he shows up out of the threat of extortion. And Cruise is still cluelessly in love with his short little bromance brother so he shows up for everything.
Wow. Is Lottie Hautenbach (sp?) still around – Enid Byrne’s Mom?
So the orgs have to pay BIC (Building Investment Committee ?)weekly/monthly rent EVEN though they and or their parishioners paid for the building. Last I knew – ’96. AOLA paid for it’s share of the complex yet was billed some 2300 a week there-after. I got a sec check for fighting that one 🙂
Jane Doe says
Cece thank you for the reference and info. So if parishioners paid for the Ideal Org, and then the Church steps in as Landlord to which the same org that was paid for by parisioners now has to pay the landlord RENT, this is a “financial irregularity” to put it lightly and a scam at worst. Can we call for a government investigation into this? Or maybe a real estate lawyer can get a lawsuit up for it? Or if nothing else, maybe we can whistleblow and get media attention on it and from there it may snowball into something? Any ideas or suggestions, Mike and others?
HCOPL of 18 Jan 1965 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT BUILDING FUND ACCOUNT
PG 3 “Scientology orgs have always spent all I would make for them. They have adjusted their “need” to how much could be made. In supervision of their finance, it is only necessary to reverse this and they adjust their income to their “needs.”
“When a surplus is made a part of the “need” by disguised outgo, a surplus occurs. Only then will it occur. It will not happen otherwise.
COB is very concerned about SINO’s and has OSA, as a top priority, at work weeding out these traitors to the cause of Scientological purity.
In unrelated news, COB has had to temporarily ground the new fleet of Mark VIIII’s because they are, if it can be believed, working too good
OTVIII, This is hilarious, and stupid enough to be true. VWD !
Roger….If and when the COS finally does collapse I hope that you will reconsider the response that you plan to use on those who want to reconnect with you. Of course it’s your decision. I would think that many of those who find themselves being “the last ones to turn out the lights” have been in doubt, confused and fed up for quite some time. Maybe many have been playing the game just to avoid disconnection or were really true blue believers. Although I’m sure that there are some folks that are just naturally nasty, many are kind hearted people who just wanted to help others. They will be devastated and a comforting friend with open arms would be very helpful.
Chris Mann says
Well, hopefully some day it will all be not so serious. Where you can be interested in it and apply some of it to your life, or even get serious about it if you like it.
If I’m into some “other practice” like buddhism or martial arts etc it’s not such an enforced thing where you have to be in or out. Right now with the Church if you ordered an extension course ten years ago and never opened the package you ARE A SCIENTOLOGIST- period, and that’s that. There’s no shades of grey. Anyone just looking or studying it to add ideas to their life is dillitante, or a squirrel. They (The Church) are sort of in enforce on this. They force members to do this and do that and believe this and think that. Not for me. I think that is one major factor that scares away anyone interested in Scientology. You show interest and they are all over you, calling every day and really it smothers the interest. Get me out of here.
Very good thread, Mike. I’d say pretty dead-accurate assessments, rock-solid on-topic meat & potato discussion material, the finest scam I have yet witnessed. Ultimately this thirst for our pocketbooks is what will do them in, and has been been the key item that has hampered expansion.
In any event …
The majority of Scientology members who have left the Church are not known to the Indies, they stay so well under the radar only their auditor knows and I would estimate for every known member that left and has made a public announcement to that effect, another 3 or 4 exist under deep cover. (They don’t tell, don’t want to risk any leaks) The majority of these ex-CO$ers have no interest in affronting the Church – couldn’t care less, or become the victim of disconnection policies, but wish to continue moving up the bridge without being shackled by ridiculous and costly eligibility cycles and mandatory donation rackets. I estimate close to 5,000 are out here contributing to the Indie scene in some fashion or other comparable to the 15,000 – 25,000 in the CO$. A 4:1 to 5:1 ratio is probably quite accurate.
It really depends what you want to do. The minority have fish to fry, but most under the radar just want to make it through their OT levels before heathenly time runs out with their maker.
They’re gonna have to do a lot more than just flap their gums, which is all they have been doing. As it sits, the existing management would have to have heads put on a pike, nothing less will do. But since all they really want from you is your money, this is a rather moot point.
Former Catholic says
That’s what govts do in wars.
Former Catholic says
How ’bout another helicopter ride dropping leaflets on what is out-tech (Friends of LRH-style) over the next big event? Then do rinse and repeat until enough get it?
That could speed things up.
This is the best idea of all.
And also that the field can deliver up to OTVIII. The hook that keeps most pof them dangling is that.
It depends on how you define “Scientologist”.
To Ron it was anyone who was in someway improving conditions using Scn tech which could be anything they picked up from a book or even a friend and is probably the source of the original 8 million *estimate* given in the original FOT.
The number could include School teachers and College Professors who might have had their students clear words in the dictionary instead of try to define it solely by context or Surgeons who operated in silence or anyone who did an assist on anyone or a locational.
Maybe people in Government and Corporations who began using a three basket system instead of the old in and out.
Astro and Nuclear physicists who thought the factors and the axioms were cool and applied them to their specific field of research.
Remember at the time millions of DMSMH were sold and there were active Field Auditors and groups all over the place.
Also at the time Scientology was considered more hip and trendy then now especially when you had one of the founding members of the beat generation as an active Scientologist back then. Not to mention a couple of members of the Dead.
Plus there were stealth Scientologists covertly insinuating the tech into the military and even the IC per the “Zone Plan”.
Anyway as I said “8 million” was probably just an estimate of people back then who may have picked up some small aspect of the tech and used it to improve their own lives or the lives of others in some small way possibly multiplied by a factor of 8 which seemed to be a favorite number of the Ol’man’s to the number of actual HASI members which probably back then numbered probably about about a million which included free 6 month memberships.
Back then unlike now where according to the IRS you have to be a member of the Church to be considered a “Scientologist”. You could be considered a Scientologist even if you hadn’t set foot in an Org and bought a HASI membership.
So maybe Ron gave an over optimistic estimate as he was wont to do at times or it could have been an accurate estimate or it could be an underestimate when you consider the fact that much of the IC spent almost 3 decades that they are willing to admit to (I never trust what any spook says and friends of mine who research the dark side or were part of it say its probably on going under a different rubric) trying to wrap their wits around OT technology in their various RV projects.
I mean based on those who have applied some aspect Scn in some way and may not even be aware that it was Scientology.
For instance I had a Teacher in public school who insisted that we all buy a dictionary and to never go by a word we didn’t understand and there I was applying some aspect of what is considered “study tech” with out even knowing it. So under Ron’s rather broad definition I could have been considered a “Scientologist” even though back in 5th grade I didn’t even know Scientology existed.
So the original 8 million it is basically an *estimate*.
However the fact is that if you look at actual membership which is new yardstick for number of Scientologists as decreed by Dave’s “friends” in the IRS. You’ll see that the numbers are dropping rapidly like a shot duck.
Especially with the complete loss of any PR area control and the name of Scientology being continually dragged through the mud in the Media thanks to the “skillful management” over there who apply less of actual Scientology than I did in Grade School without actually knowing it.
As Ron said way back “Scientology will only go as far as it works” and it seems the morons over there are doing their damnedest to make it unworkable and thus organizational it is going nowhere except down.
Mike Rinder says
The 8 million figure was not even an estimate. I have written about this before.
The 6 million was an estimate. Based on some weird extrapolation of how many people “read a copy of a book.”
But 6 million was used for too long and one day Miscavige berated Heber because the number had not increased for years. He told him to just start using 8 million.
That was the entirety of how it came about.
Seems that it was effective because I’d forgotten about the original 6000,000 number from FOT till now and must have conflated the two.
Doesn’t surprise me that Miscavige pulled the additional 2 mill out of his ass.
Seems false stats and overt products is the direction that the Orgs have gone in under his so called “leadership”.
Roger from Switzerland Thought says
After I really understood what Gat 2 is about, I knew that this is the end of the story. I didn’t think it would be so fast and I have personal satisfaction in the fact that in 2 years it will be over with a big crash or scandal or FBI raid or whatever…
The Scientologists that then want to reconnect with us and discuss endlessly their stories are and will be sent away with the remark: ” You knew what you did and you even had imagined wins from disconnecting from us and we can’t trust you, you are not a friend..we wish you the best and good bye”
Nevertheless the pressure we had in those 35 years in we never were accomplice to the destructive behavior of the Church but rather accepted to be treated like shit ourselves then to hurt or destroy somebody else.
GAT II is the final blow that will completely destroy the RCS. I can imagine the confusion the people that are still on lines do go through; trying to find out how to become an auditor or go up the bridge or in status. It became a total trap. Most of them will just go into apathy and be confused and not move in a intelligent direction.
THAT’s IT !
63 years of hope and work destroyed by a lunatic over a weekend.
What an accomplishment !.
What has fascinated me in all this is how DM can not stop pushing his destructive programs such as Ideal orgs heavy fundraising, IAS Gestapo tactics used to extract money from people, GAT 2 and crazy retrain from the bottom up, arbitrary disconnection, break-up of families and friends, etc. Public on-lines was crashing in 2005. I’m sure it’s much worse now. I think Mike’s estimates are correct. The media is having a field day with Scn Incs crazy antics. Pressure is building and comm lines are expanding. Don’t know when the bubble will burst but it sure is fun watching the crazy circus!
Yeah, it’s a new GAT II Universe down the path to Non-Existence. Even when the show collapses completely, they’ll still be begging for money … those will be the last breaths.
“The Scientologists that then want to reconnect with us and discuss endlessly their stories are and will be sent away with the remark: ” You knew what you did and you even had imagined wins from disconnecting from us and we can’t trust you, you are not a friend..we wish you the best and good bye””
No, you won’t do that.
When they touch base with you desperately needing someone to talk to, still in overwhelm now that they see they were taken in and fooled, you will recall when you stood in their shoes too some time in the past when you too were fooled by some whooper of a program (just not GAT 2).
And your own innate goodness will come to the front and you’ll sit down and talk with them and figure out how to move on from this point..
You know you will do this.
Yeah but they can have a few slaps round the head a la DM just for good measure – some of these people were/are real assholes. And then they can be sorted out!
And you I take it were never an asshole at all, not even once? You never did anything that might cause someone else to think you deserved a smack around the ears?
I’ll grant that *some* folks deserve a prison cell, but that’s not what you and Roger are saying. You are saying that all of them, and presumably “all” means “everyone left in after some time event determine by you”, deserve a good smack. Equally presumably, you left before that event and you are one of the good guys.
I’ll be honest with you, it sure looks like you left the church but kept some of the attitude. Let it go, it’s like taking poison and expecting the other fellow to die.
Odd Thomas says
I agree with pretty much with all of what you write. Except that my paranoid side says that this was an operation which took years maybe decades and a lot of planning to accomplish which I don’t feel the little Deceptive Moron or DM is capable of.
This all started back in the ’70’s when the GO took the bait and decided to take a walk on the wild side of espionage and it slowly escalated from there.
Roger, I don’t feel that way at all as far as those that come out of the church. The one thing that Scn never had was compassion and it was bred out of all of us. It’s something we have to relearn, once we’re out from under the oppression.
Those people will be bruised and confused and needing to talk it out just like we did. To not listen and turn away is the same cruelty all over again.
I will definitely be here for them.
Wendy M says
If Miscavige keeps spending money on lawyers (16 for one lawsuit), moving tents around the world, paying fines for not complying with city regulations, etc his demise will be hastened. He is applying the wrong formula to the danger going into non-e situation. Even in affluence you tighten the belt and pay all creditors. If everyone who had money on account demanded it back, that would create a flap. If sufficient numbers demanded a refund of donations that could break the back. I wonder if he has catered for this exigency.
Wendy, seems to me the situation is ripe for some enterprising Indie or Ex-Scientologist attorney to organize a class action lawsuit.
You might be on to something, Wendy M. Let’s say 40,000 Scientologists or ex’s ask for their money back. $1 Billion divided by 40,000 is $25,000. Would that be a realistic figure of money people have on account? Even if it’s less, it still would take a sizeable bite out of a billion dollars.
As I understand it, in COS, money on account is money that is already spent. It’s not actually sitting in an account somewhere. So it would have to come out of the reserves, right?
Between the awful PR keeping new public away, the indefatiguable crush-regging for the IAS and Ideal Orgs, and Flag ripping off whatever viable PC the orgs have had for their lower Grades for their lower Grades I think most Class V orgs have been Non-E trending for many years. In my opinion, Danger should be a goal of theirs.
Don’t know if John P. is licking his chops yet, but Scientology Orgs could be purchased and run profitabley as a new self storage chain of businesses.
I became enlightened through Debbie Cook’s exposures and at the time thought it would only be a matter of months before it all collapsed. I underestimated how other-determined some of the members had become, even some good friends who I thought were above that.
GAT 2 is certainly going to speed the demise. You’ld think it was being done on purpose.
There is, after all, a datum about how a sociopath will eventually try to stop himself from transgressing against his fellow man.
I still don’t think it will be much longer before it all comes crashing down. It will reach a make-break point where it simply can no longer sustain itself and like the Walls of Jericho, come tumbling down.
Chee Chalker says
Mike, when you were “in” did anyone keep ACCURATE stats on the number of active members, or was the focus merely on the whales and how much money could be squeezed from them?
There is no small irony that the Ideal Morgues will be the end of the Co$, as those were inspired by TC and implemented by his best buddy COB
The most accurate report on actual stat numbers I’ve seen on the net (as opposed to well calculates estimates) is this blog post from Jefferson Hawkins 3 1/2 years ago:
The most accurate measure of active scns out there would be IAS members and it’s the one stat Davey would watch like a hawk – he needs to know how big his pool of whales is. IAS members was never more then 40,000 and there is no reason whatsoever to believe that number increased at all since 2010.
ACTUALLY, # of IAS members isn’t a real good way of counting. Lifetime memberships don’t expire. So, you can’t use those. Annual memberships give an idea of a certain segment only.
Ilbye, yes that’s true but it does at least indicate orders of magnitude. Are there 40,000 or 400,000 or 4,000,000 members?
Non-expiring lifetime memberships (far more common than annuals) makes the numbers even more grim though. After 31 years the cos has only managed to sell memberships to 40,000 persons *in total* and actual, real, current members are even less than that
Wow! Where did you get the Lifetime memberships sold #? Interesting data.
It’s further up in the thread (search my username to find it quickly). I linked to a blog post by Jefferson Hawkins and he quotes numerous interesting stats there, like average ranges of attendees at bug events etc etc
Working in CMU at the time, he was privy to stats and figures the rest of us don’t get to see. Like the International Birthday Game stat sheet listing every org’s GDSs every week, remember those?
Mike – it would be a piece of work, but now that the size of the CofS is so small, maybe it’s feasible to perform an unofficial annual census based on input from around the world (such as the one from scnafrica above).
You could pick a date, say 10th December, and ask people to send you their estimates at either country or regional level for “committed” and “openly disaffected” and “under-the-radar” Scientologists on that date.
They could send you their estimates by email direct, so people were’nt influencing each other. Ideally, you would get several different estimates for each region. From those estimates you would calculate the average.
Just a suggestion – could be interesting.
I would also be interested in an estimate of “out but still interested” and “out and no longer interested”, but guess the latter would be hard to obtain.
In short, if there were no Hollywood celebs in scn, the world at large would NEVER hear ANYTHING about LRH, Scn, Dianetics, et al. N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
It, as a movement, is truly dead. The church, like a moving car that has just run out of gas, simply has remaining inertia. But, external friction is high…
True, and of the 120 famous Americans who were listed as Scientologists in the list I saw, 60 quietly stopped being active long ago, 6-7 have left and actively criticized the church, 5 died, around 50 are still in but I think Remini, Haggis, et al will get half of those to leave (Jaylo and Will and Jada are good candidates for indie status, based on their remarks–they like the tech but not the religion; only about 12 are gung ho).
Yes, without Katselas roping in Hollywood people, it would have been like EST or Heaven’s gate during the Miscavige era.
Would it help to have the perspective of a never-in? I’m a forty-four year old liberal Christian accountant who has long held a facination with religions other than my own. I’ve been following blogs and such about Scientology since I came across the St. Pete “Truth Rundown”. I live in a city with an Idle Morgue, and did not even know about it until I saw a mention in a list a few months ago.
I have friends, family, co-workers, aquaintances and business associates around the world. I have, to the best of my knowledge, NEVER met (IRL) a current, indie or ex-Scientologist in my life, nor have I known anyone that has. My personal Venn diagram simply does not overlap that of Scn at all outside of the internet.
Question – what happens to the UTRs when everyone they worry about being disconnected from is also out of the CoS? Would that be another in a long list of “tipping points”?
Grace, it would definately help. But as a part of going up the Bridge dave overly used security checking (a sort of confessional) and some UTRs may not want that information getting out for general information. The leaking of this information is something the church has done with the more vocal critics. Its a disgusting, low act, but really just another nail in the RCSs coffin.
Odd Thomas says
Grace — thanks for your perspective.
If there are many Scientologists out there like me, I can understand why you’ve “run into” so few of us. I got in SCN in 1972. Yet, I spent long periods of time not doing anything. From 1982 until 2005, I was on course three times for maybe a month at a time — otherwise I even avoided events. I just didn’t want to hear others telling me what I should be doing-thinking-acting like. I left staff in 1982 – this was the main thing I took away with me. Sick and tired of all the eval and inval, freely offered by any Scientologist with a few minutes on their hands.
This is the first time I’ve written down this sentiment in 31 years — sad, interesting but true.
I believe many other Scientologists feel the same way. And have reacted in the same manner. I’d say, most UTRs exist because their dream of what SCN could bring, was thwarted by the Idiocracy that formed within the Church that thought the only way to create a free-thinking being, was to tell them what to do.
Keep observing – outside perspective are quite valuable.
Chee Chalker says
Brain freeze here….what’s an UTR?
One way to estimate is by the scientology.org website. Barely in the top 100,000 worldwide (less than your site), it thus gets 2500 unique visits a day, or 900,000 a year. Well, I’m estimating that the average visitor visits 5 times a year, so that’s about 180,000 different people, a third of whom never visited before this year, or about 60,000 new people each year.
With only 12-15,000 followers on twitter and youtube, I’m guessing that 98% of those new people quit within a year, so there are about 1,000 new people a year become committed. I would also guess that they stay an average of 10 years, so 10,000 publics, plus the SO plus 30,000 newbies who will quit within 6 months plus indies.
If there is one thing I could say to people who are “on the fence” or finally reading the internet in hopes of finding answers to the problems or out-points they have witnessed, it is this… You are more alone in the church than out.
Are you a staff member who puts in hours of call-in each week and wonders, “Why do most of our public never answer my calls?”
Or when writing your weekly letter quota, the thought crosses your mind, “I wonder why no one ever answers me?”
Or you walk into the HGC of your Ideal Org and it’s empty. Or wonder why the majority of your public don’t go on course.
It’s because of out-tech. Crack open your green and red vols and learn for yourself.
Go to the indexes and search “international events,” “donations,” and the “IAS” and study what you find.
Ask yourself, “Is it right for people who only have time off on the weekends, to come to an event or go on course to train to be an auditor?”
What was LRH’s intention? Do you think it was to have people take out credit card loans to pay for a posh building, which doesn’t directly give them spiritual gain? Do you believe that is “equal exchange” as LRH promoted as being a high level of ethics?
Ask yourself, “Is it possible that our whole field aren’t out-ethics or filled with MUs, but instead are silently leaning away from something that is harming in the name of help?”
As a Scientologist, you have to ask yourself these questions and answer honestly. Because by being there, you are contributing.
The Tech, Grades, OT Levels, auditing and course rooms are alive and well outside of the church. And they aren’t alone, or going bankrupt from donations, or having their families ripped apart from them.
Joe Schmo says
Very very good post, Anon. This is the message we need to somehow, anyhow, get direct to the staff and public of these Idle Morgues. Perhaps via FB, personal emails or even hard-copy letters to their homes. Persistence on this course would pay big dividends in terms of getting the abused staff and bankrupt public out of RCS before they are truly ruined for life.
Well said Anon. My sentiments entirely.
Jane Doe says
“…when you own real estate paid for with other people’s money (Scientology’s International Landlord) it doesn’t matter if you sell at a loss” I think it’s even worse than it seems on the surface. The “renos” performed to turn a trash building into an “idyllic org” render the building itself worthless as anyone buying the building will have to totally re-reno the thing to make it into a bank building or offices, or a gymnasium, or a warehouse. That will affect the selling price quite adversely…I’m betting it will make the price drop BELOW the assessed price of the land itself, since the purchaser will in essence be paying for erecting a new edifice.
Love this post.
Let’s just talk BODIES IN THE SHOP for a minute. There are NOT more than 1,000 public on-lines at Flag. And 1/2 those public are from out of town and are on the BIS stat for other org’s as well. So we’ll say 1,000 public at Flag, and that’s the highest of the highest. There are NOT more than 100 BIS (on average) at each of the 170 Class V orgs. A few orgs have more than 100 but the smaller orgs bring down that number. And also, many of the Class V BIS are OTs who have to be regularly onlines at their local org and also appear on the BIS count for an SO org at times.
There are NOT more than 200 BIS (on average) each of the SO orgs outside of FLAG (ASHO, AOLA, AOSH EU, AOSH UK, AOSH ANZO…have I missed any?). And counting the SO orgs is generous b/c most of their public are also counted at the Class V orgs.
Missions in the U.S. hardly even exist. They are probably still big in Russia. Just for the hell of it, let’s say 5,000 public WORLDWIDE at missions who might not be being counted in the Class V world.
So we have FLAG = 1,000
Class V world = 17,000
Non-FLAG SO world = 1,000
Missions = 5,000
HIGH-ESTIMATE FOR WW PUBLIC = 24,000
SO = 5,000
Class V = 3,500
Missions = 1,000
HIGH-ESTIMATE FOR WW STAFF = 9,500
HIGH-ESTIMATE FOR WW BIS & STAFF= 33,500
I believe the real number is lower than this, but this is a fair (high) estimate.
The number is also within the 15,000 to 40,000 ballpark that is commonly discussed.
Even if you double these estimates, you are still talking about a debacle.
Probably 20% to 30% of all these staff actually want to leave.
Probably 20% to 30% of all these Active SCNs are actually under the radar and reading the blogs.
The remaining cling to the idea that anyone who reads negative data about the Church is an SP, and anyone speaking out against the Church is only doing so because they are furious the Church is expanding so fast.
Any SCN would agree with these estimates at the org-level. They just wouldn’t be willing to extrapolate the numbers out to the WW level. They would suffer from cognitive dissonance. They would probably say “there are tens of thousands of missions all over the world that we just don’t see”.
On FB, during the GAT 2 events there were posts like “please don’t spoil for the release for the millions of Scientologists around the world who haven’t seen the even yet”. The flock really does believe there are least 3 million Scientologists in the world. I have heard SCNs comment that the influx or rich, Russian public to Flag served as proof to them of SCN’s international expansion.
Scientology – the global village where one half won’t talk to the other half. Asterix and the Great Divide.
Joe Schmo says
That’s one of the big problems within the Scn ‘bubble’ – that they can’t or won’t look out beyond their local org scene to realize that Scn world-wide is NOT expanding, is NOT successful and is NOT the big huge pipedream that Miscavige keeps PRing at Int Events. They all have “the grass is always greener” syndrome and kid themselves that their local org is the only place that isn’t big and booming. It requires massive cognitive dissonance to do this, but somehow they manage.
If we can bust through that, we will have the game won before having to wait for the financial decimation of the Class V sector through attrition. Convincing the flock to leave the dying field of weeds for truly greener pastures in the independent field would sound the death knell for RCS.
Odd Thomas says
Joe — I think we are busting through. What all of us are doing and have done for the last few years has had an effect. Look at the last event at Flag. By any numerical standard, it was a bust! There were more people attending Auditor’s Day events in LA a few years back.
Let me draw, what others may see as a far-fetched analogy. When the Allied Troops were landing at Normandie in June 1944 during WW II, I doubt if any of them felt – wow this thing is almost over. Yet, Germany surrendered within about ten months.
From my observation the decline has increased its pace. It’s painful to watch anything falter and decline in this way, especially if it’s something we’ve loved in the past. We want it to be over.
I think we’re getting there and just need to continue doing exactly what is being done. Posting on blogs, disseminating information, writing letters, even if they’re returned. Communicate.
John P. Capitalist says
I think your numbers are fairly close. If I could point to two numbers that are a bit higher than my own estimates, I would say that 5,000 SO might be high. I think there are a few apartment buildings in Clearwater that used to be SO berthing that are now empty or are used for other things like Outer Org Trainees. I would also say that 5,000 from missions might be a bit high, as is the mission staff number given that most US missions seem to be open only a handful of hours per week and there are reports of about 2-3 staff total in many of those places. It’s also the case that you have some overlap between missions and Class V orgs since some people prefer to stay local at their mission when they can and may be double-counted in Class V org numbers because they only go to the Org to do stuff they are not allowed to do at their local Mission.
I’d welcome your further participation as I try to get a more accurate number over at my blog, johnpcapitalist.com. I’m trying to apply my Wall Street analytical and number crunching skills to issues about the cult over there.
Mike Rinder says
I think Sea Org is probably a bit high too. My guesses would be:
Flag — 1500
Int Base — 700
HGB/ABLE/LANDLORD/WISE — 500
CLO WUS/AOLA/ASHO/PAC ESTATES/BPI/RPF/IAS — 800
ASI/CST — 50
CLO EUS — 25
CLO EU/AOSHEU/NEP — 250
CLO ITL – 25
CLO ANZO/AOSHANZO — 125
CLO AF — 25
CLO LATAM — 25
CLO UK/AOSHUK — 125
CLO CIS — 40
FREEWINDS — 150
CLO CAN — 25
I’d be happy to help. How do I get in touch?
Jane Doe says
” I have heard SCNs comment that the influx of rich, Russian public to Flag served as proof to them of SCN’s international expansion.” Deep Six, how ironic this is.
The Kook Aid drinkers think that the influx of Russian public is because we are expanding so much worldwide. Yet the truth of it is that the American public has dwindled so much that DM can’t get anyone on staff from America (having already taken the first, second and third borns of the long-time Scns for staff). So he solves the problem just as the tobacco industry did; he goes to Europe and other countries to promote to people who would give their right arm to be able to come to America and escape the desperate conditions there. And based on that heavy promotion and empty promises to the Europeans, he gets Russians here.
It just goes to show that the Data Series jewel that outpoints are hard to confront and that instead of confronting the cognitive dissonance of it all, the sheeple will just dub in answers to explain away the most flagrant of outpoints. And that dub-in is what keeps them swilling the Kool Aide.
Sheldon Goldberg says
First of all, I would assume most if not all class 5 orgs operate at a loss. Recently, it was posted that Pasadena had 55 basic completions over 6 years. Full basics courses is around 3K, possible 4K. That’s about 200K in income over 6 years, 30+K per year, 600 per week. Add is some random auditing intensives – I’m sure there haven’t been many. The electricity in that building is probably more than 600/week.
More importantly, the church’s policy of disconnection, breaking up family and friends will continue to cause people to stay away in droves. Many of the Chinese, Russians and others may not yet fully understand the ramifications.
No technology or religion, no matter how good or bad has the right to destroy the basic building block of society. It is a criminal overt of severe magnitude that will surely lead to the church’s undoing.
Just this weekend I heard of more Thanksgivings that were celebrated in odd ways to deal with the various “statuses” of certain family members. My family, is of course, no exception.
The church has so many human abuse crimes, that it can’t afford to allow its parishioners to read the internet. In 2013, that presents an insurmountable problem. The internet is everywhere and anyone who is not brain washed uses it to learn more about potential decisions they are considering.
I can only guess how many “members” are still in simply to avoid their lives being ruined by the disconnection policy. I went for years dreading disconnection, fearing the loss of friends and family.
After having been declared 4 months ago, I would never go back. Sure I lost some “friends” and I can’t see my granddaughter, but I would never again be part of a group that control and treat its members the way the church of scientology does.
“No technology or religion, no matter how good or bad has the right to destroy the basic building block of society. It is a criminal overt of severe magnitude that will surely lead to the church’s undoing.”
The is an incredibly good and accurate point. I would also add, however, that no religion can survive doing so.
Look at every great religion on this planet. Each one holds the family unit as sacred and saccrosanct. They attempt to provide moral frameworks which encourage the existance of families and their nurturing and harmony.
When i look back at my SCN experience its really incredible. I don’t know a single Scientologist (when they were a Scientologist) who hasnt lost someone to disconnection at some pont. And to lose their entire family is not that uncommon.
Furthermore, nearly all active Scientologists with kids, neglect those kids. Scientology preaches the 8 Dynamics and claims Scienotologists expand and live better on ALL dynamics. This is absurd and delusional. Scientologists almost uniformly suffer greatly on their FIRST and SECOND dynamics as a result of being active in Scientology.
This alone will kill of this money cult.
Odd Thomas says
I hope you will be able to see your granddaughter soon. Let’s all postulate that!
Tony DePhillips says
I’m with you Sheldon.
If the Far East is perceived as virgin territory for future expansion, Chinese culture will be the rock upon which the Reverse C of S’s ship of state will crash. Unlike in the West, “filial piety” (i.e. the virtue of respect for one’s parents and ancestors) is very much alive and well in the Far East. Family ties are paramount and senior to all other considerations, and is the bedrock of Eastern culture. One simply does not do anything that would undermine the family or make the family “lose face”. The concept of reporting on family members is abhorrent, and disconnection is well and painfully recognized as a hallmark of totalitarian group psychosis. Also unlike in the West, the concept of sectarianism is foreign. One is free to be Buddhist one day and a Taoist the next and a Christian the day after or any combination thereof at any time without anyone else having a second thought about it. Religiosity is viewed as entirely personal and no one else’s business. Overt proselytization is also viewed as an odious foreign concept – as the resort of those whose subject is apparently so weak that it must be imposed and sold rather than spread by its own merits of wisdom, equanimity, virtue and comforting. Glitzy centralized corporate religion itself is the diametric opposite of Chinese spiritual sensibilities, where temples have existed and thrived for hundreds or thousands of years at the direction of impoverished monks and few local part-time volunteers.
Conversely, Far East culture does provide an opportunity for the Indie field. The established pattern over thousands of years is that of a local Master establishing a temple or facility and providing unfettered self-improvements services to those who want to avail themselves of same, no pressure. Helen Chen’s example amply validates that pattern as the successful model for this culture.
Jane Doe says
Way to go Sheldon! The church’s loss of you is our gain.
Jose Chung says
I think your report is accurate. Any error I would say would be on the plus side.
In other words there maybe nearly no new public. Staff including SO is 10,000
( generous number). Yes, the Ideal Org program is the wooden stake through the heart,
the Silver bullet, however you want to describe it.
I had a client who’s goal in life was to join an exclusive rich boys travel club.
His belief was then rub shoulders with elite rich people whom would share their insights on being rich. Well nothing could be farther from the truth. Likewise Tom Cruise is an actor
who makes movies and a few words from him creates the Ideal Org Program ?.
It will be something obscure and not yet seen that will start the domino’s fall.
When ? that’s a difficult call but certain.
Desert Storm began when one Arab Minister threw a plate of spaghetti in the face of another Arab minister. ( a plate of spaghetti of all things)
“It will be something obscure and not yet seen that will start the domino’s fall”.
That’s my picture too. Like Al Capone was finally nabbed on of all things, tax evasion. Desert Storm with plate of spaghetti, of all things. It will be some small, dumb error, and afterwards it will be said, “Of all things, THIS was what brought that vicious cult down”.
But that’s only the apparency, because no small error alone can bring a person or group down, its what piled up before the small error that breaks the back of the camel.
Jane Doe says
Aquamarine, I can’t thank you enough for your support and kind words. Ask Mike R for my email address so we can be in comm.
I think the only question left is will the COS slowly burn out over 20 or 30 years or go out with a bang. Will it get to a point where Miscavige will essentially just “close up shop”, cash out and dissolve the whole enterprise?
So pathetic with DM. Ruler of a tiny, wealthy kingdom, where he rules by fear and is a laughing stock to the rest of the planet.
Jane Doe says
Well Kevin, whether it takes a long time or a short time for RCS to go under is something maybe we as Indies can help with. Many of us have family that disconnected from us, so we have a vested interest in seeing it gone sooner rather than later. Maybe we could hold an Indie Summit with some of the Indie power terminals, where we discuss strategies and things we can do which we consider “the greatest good for the greatest number of dynamics” based on what our goals are. Why not strike a big massive and effective blow? What have we got to lose? We already lost it all, so why not hasten the demise of the church so that no more human abuse happens and so that our families can be reunited soon. Mike, what do you think about having an Indie Summit to plan and strategize and brainstorm up Battle Plans that can be done?
I had the exact same question. What really goes on in DM’s head? He’s clearly a megalomaniac, but does he see and understand what is happening? With the Ideal Org program, was his intent to improve the prestige of his little kingdom (ala the Tom Cruise the-orgs-are-trashy excuse) or is the program an attempt to amass a base of assets that could be liquidated quickly to facilitate his escape? If its a mixture of the two, what are the proportions?
Jane, I want to respond to your post. Your pain, loss and despair due to disconnection of loved ones from you is a tragedy that has not happened to me but that has been experienced by many. I want to defeat the RCS also. But I believe that overt clashing and opposition will not work.
Each of us was once in, and drinking the koolaid. Would we have listened to Scientologists criticizing the church and claiming that DM is a lunatic who disappeared his wife and beat his staff and so on? I know that I wouldn’t have. What got me out was a process that started because I had questions that weren’t answered.
I thought that was odd, rather curious, so I started pulling threads, and little by little, I started getting the real scene, and besides getting my original questions answered a lot of other things which I had parked to far corners of my mind also made sense, like pieces of a puzzle.
For me, getting out, just like getting in, was wholly self-determined. I read everything except the OT level data, Xenu story excepted, I mean, its impossible to avoid that. I read, I searched. I mostly lurked on Marty’s blog because it was pro-tech and anti-DM and management. Scientology had really helped me, I loved it, yet I hated the rest
.Anyway, my long-winded point here is that getting truth out IS dissolving the RCS, that what worked for me as a self-determined being has already worked and is working and will continue to work for others.
Your loved ones cannot cognite by being “made wrong” (effectively) by any group GOING AGAINST the RCS. I think that’s the wrong tactic. As gruesome as it is, these sheeple need to cognite on their own.
If they won’t maintain comm lines with you, flow them your affinity and compassion in the theta universe and let the truth DO ITS WORK. . The truth IS seeping in. It IS having an effect. Truth CANNOT be stopped, it is too powerful and therefore ALWAYS wins in the end.
What you want is the mind and heart of your loved ones. Screw the RCS! It is dying, the truth is killing it, and it is also DYING BY ITS OWN HAND.
The RCS is committing suicide, and the truth out there is lending a hand. The RCS cannot live and survive and flourish with its own anti-survival, anti-communication, pro- death policies.
Your loved ones are trapped in LIES. They could simply walk out and communicate with anyone they want at any time, but they don’t because the lies trap them. The only weapon for lies is truth.
Now, I’m sorry if this long post sounds so very pat and cliche, so let me end by saying that, IMO, any strategizing to be done should be along the lines of doing more of WHAT IS ALREADY BEING DONE as regards getting the truth out there, getting it out there in as much volume as possible. But that said, even this getting it out in volume will happen, in my opinion, inevitably, and we will see the day when some horrific RCS thing is splashed across all the major news outlets, and then everyone will know the truth, pretty quickly..
To get your loved ones back, all you need to do is somehow communicate to them your compassion, love and understanding of them while supporting the getting of the truth out there and the universe will bring them to you. I know this sounds very esoteric and airy-fairy but it is very real to me that things work this way.
Odd Thomas says
Good post Aquamarine. +1
I agree with you. A frontal attack of the RCS will only give them what they yearn for – a real live enemy at their door. Which will then be used to rally the troops and draw attention away from the infrastructure that is collapsing around them. It’ll make DM right and slow down the progress being made.
As painful as it is to watch DM must self-destruct.
Communication is the solution.One handling for a PTS situation is a “good roads, fair weather” approach. One takes the time to communicate to various terminals, knowing they may reject the reach, burn the letters and continue to “hate you.” But I believe this approach – theta comm and love – will erode the defenses of those still in the RCS.
I believe many of us were in a position of not wanting to hear what was going on in the RCS because it was too painful. We rationalized what was happening, made excuses, and soldiered on. But eventually “something” clicked. Some thing, made us stop and look more closely. That will happen to the others in the RCS sooner than later. Momentum is a powerful tool and its on our side at the moment. Let’s all contribute to it where we can
Mike Rinder says
Hmmm, I favor the frontal attack approach.
Jane Doe says
Mike, you said you are in favor of the frontal attack approach. Can we hear more? This is a discussion I want to get all sides on and we have heard from the other side already, that of letting DM die of his own causation without help. What can you tell us about the frontal attack? I’m all ears.
Mike Rinder says
You see it as it happens.
It is a war of attrition. All effective actions should be used at the same time (direct and indirect). They each have their effects, and it is the total that counts.
So, choose whatever floats your boat, and go for it.
Jane Doe says
Aquamarine, thank you for your empathy and compassion and wise advice. I cried when I read your post, it moved me that much. The disconnection of my loved ones is recent and so the wound is still raw. I guess to sum your post up, “the pen is mightier than the sword” right? I’ll take that.
I erroneously thought that if we just brought down the church faster rather than letting them slowly die their own death, that with no structure left, those in would come to us for help. But I can see after reading your post, that that is an over simplification of the problem and is not the way to do it. Mainly it is wrong because those still in will still have the lies that they clutch to their bosom and they may even make DM a martyr and the fact that the church came down might be blamed on us “bitter defrocked apostates” in the Indie world, which pushes them even further away from us.
So our strategy now must be that of enlightenment, education, spreading truth and hoping some of it sticks. Any direct opposition to the church or DM will be seen by the misguided true believers as “heinous SP acts to harm them.” I see that now. Thank you.
Let’s work on how to get the truth out there. They won’t read internet, or flyers or listen to us. So we have to be clever and creative at how we get the word out. Let that percolate everyone and then let’s have a private Indie Summit to discuss ways to do this. We’ll make our own ID cards to see who gets let in, and have our own security at the door to stop undesirables. (joke)
Jane, you just summed up exactly what I meant so perfectly and beautifully that I am the one crying now! We are on the same page.
I would love to be in comm with you about this. Could you get my email from Mike with my express permission for him to give it to you herein granted?
Mike, you are our ‘full frontal guy”.
Truth Pilot and CEO of Apostate Air Lines!
As well as a major player in the Underground Resistance of Special Correspondents.
Seriously, I want you to know that, overtly or covertly, WHATEVER you do, and HOWEVER you do it, I am behind you 100 percent, because i know that your purpose is to free people from the LIES THAT ARE TRAPPING THEM, and, in so doing, to restore to them their power of choice over themselves and over their other dynamics.
When people are able to make decisions with true data, they know who to love, who to trust, who to respect, and who to reject.
Robert Almblad says
Miscavige has taken some pages out tobacco company’s strategies, but it will not work.
Tobacco companies lost $ zillions in revenue when the number deaths from smoking was disclosed and laws in the US were passed so they could no longer advertise Marlboro, Virginia Slims, etc… So, they went to Asia, eastern block countries, etc.. to advertise and hook the next generation before laws were passed preventing them from advertising.
It is easy to get addicted to Tobacco in the first year and hard to quit, but it’s hard to get addicted to the Co$’s Squirrel GAT, Basics, Objectives in the first year and it is easy to quit the cult because the Independent field delivers the tech and is growing so fast.
Also, seeing the declining membership of smokers, they bought food companies like Kraft to have a solid asset for their dismal future. Miscavige seeing declining revenue for his squirrel GAT auditing and training in 1990’s, sold MEST buildings to members instead of Scientology auditing and training and then ripped off the buildings from the members so his MEST future would be secure.
Co$ final demise will come from trying to maintain a monopoly in the internet age. All the materials are available to anyone on the internet so what was Miscavige’s solution? To make his own version of Scientology so he can have a monopoly on THAT technology. Problem is, his version is pure puke. GAT is regurgitated Scientology and no one is going to get “hooked” on it for very long because it does not deliver. End of story.
The figures seem right, for me out of, lets say 50 people I do know, at least 20 are what we call under the radar; not active at all in services and not visible in blogs or otherwise. The rest are open in the so called Independent Field.
Yes, the minions now in control will end flying after filling their pockets with lots and lots of money, but also will be in hiding and in more fear ‘to be found out’ than they are experiencing now.
However, if something could be done to express the outrage against family disconnections and physical abuses so far perpetrated by He and others, we may find people that would respond as, more than the money stolen, the outrage is against the abuses of individual rights and power of choice.
gato rojo says
For me there is another area of outrage to express too…the 18-24 hour days 7 days a week, working on weekends all year, all for less than $3,000 pay a year. And very sub-standard nutrition. The mental entrapment to get the staff to work like that is extremely skillfull and 100% intentional, (supported by the “We can do this because it’s part of our scriptures” BS) and that is certainly something to be looked into and hopefully penalized heavily at some point.
I assume that you haven’t been in the Sea Org yourself. I have been, for many years. I did my 16-18 hour days, 7 days a week for a cause I believed in at the time. I was there on my own volition, and I didn’t mind working my ass off – it was my decision. I haven’t regretted it (it has mostly been a really good 3rd dynamic experience with a group of like-minded people – and I wasn’t at Int so I didn’t experience any of the Miscavige-style horror and madness, I only read about that after I left).
Would I do it now? No way. I only did it at the time because I believed in the cause.
Nobody forced me to do it. Saying so would be a lie for me, and as far as I know them, for most Sea Org members. If someone invited me to participate in a class action for damages for the time I spent working with little sleep and little pay in the Sea Org, I would politely decline as I would think it would be a case of “irresponsibility in retrospect”. I don’t wish the CofS to be “penalized” for what it “did to me” while I was a Sea Org member. I was responsible for my own life then, as I am now.
Despite being STRICTLY forbidden, I had my own personal internet access for years while I was in the Sea Org – without the church’s “internet filter”. Gloria Idda would be RPF’d if they would have found that out 🙂 I always found my way and so can anyone else.
Whatever you do, in or out of Scientology, please don’t forget that you are not a victim, and neither are those who are still “in”.
Mike Rinder says
That would be a very incorrect assumption about Gato. Many years at the Int Base….
Sorry, my assumption was incorrect then. I guess life (if you can call it that) at the Int Base must have been quite different then what was going on elsewhere, away from the genuine “Miscavige exprience” (™) which I (thankfully) never had a chance to experience first hand.
Jane Doe says
“However, if something could be done to express the outrage against family disconnections and physical abuses so far perpetrated by He and others, we may find people that would respond as, more than the money stolen, the outrage is against the abuses of individual rights and power of choice.” Yes Silvia. YOu hit it right on. I only hope that those who have disconnected from us will seek us out once it all falls and that families will be united. How can we speed up the disintegration of the RCS? That is what we should focus on.
Yeouch! The thought of Miscavige dragging this death spiral out for years by bringing in Russian, Chinese and Taiwanese is chilling. Fortunately the Internet is here and word of mouth has never traveled faster.
I think the idea that “everything could come crashing down” in as little as a few years is a bit far fetched, but the fact is that the future is certainly not as bright as the past for the RCS in terms of actual growth, and that’s pretty much all that matters. That, and how fast can you get your closest family members to wake the hell up. The membership will continue to dwindle. Folks who have been around for a long time will keep leaving. Fewer new people will come in. But no matter how bad it gets the C of S will still be around for decades and decades to come. I see no reason why the C of S would ever actually cease to exist. In fact I think it would actually be impossible for the C of S to cease to exist. Contract? Yes. Be a joke? Yes. But money takes care of a lot of problems. SCN’s tax exemption isn’t going anywhere. With a billion dollars in the bank and close to a billion more in real estate holdings, the C of S would be around for a long time even if all income came to a halt today.
You can fool a lot of people a lot of the time. There will always be some suckers ready to swallow the bait and fork over their cash. People fall for the “Nigerian Price” email scam every day. SCN’s expansion stopped occurring about 20 years ago, or more, and the C of S is still around.
SCN’s grade-system and OT-level statuses are (for many) simply subjective gains. You could C/S a PC to eat a plate of pasta with a special sauce and call it “Expanded OT 4-A”, and 95% of the PCs would write a success story about their “ability gained” from eating that plate of pasta. Many Scientologists are happy as long as they are increasing in status, in any form. I think it’s been so hard for SCN’s to move up in BRIDGE STATUS the last 15 years, that buying IAS status was simply easier to do.
The new GAT 2 grades really, really appeal to this fact. You are going to see SCN’s moving up the grades and attesting to “Clear” in some pretty crazy numbers.
This is DM’s “Save My Ass” campaign. PCs are completing two grades PER WEEK. Never mind the fact that they spent hundreds of hours on the purif and objectives. Never mind the fact that with the Basics it takes years to become an auditor. Ignore all that. PCs are literally completing 2 grades per week. And being pushed through NED in some weird quickly fashion. COB is “allowing” people to go Clear on NED again instead of insisting everyone be put through the alternate route. All the super-status happy young-guns that comprise most of the SCN public these days will flock to do their grades and attest to Clear and do their OT levels so they can all be part of the mutual-admiration society of big-beings. Their parents will pay for all of this, and will love every minute of it. It used to be a rare thing for a teenager or someone in their 20s to be Clear, or to have started their OT Levels. No longer.
One view on all this is that since if DM’s new Bridge is so squirrel and quicky, people will leave in droves. I think this will prove to be true for old timers who have some idea of what “the Bride” is supposed to be.
But my personal belief is that for most people, the Bridge, and ones movement up the Bridge is simply a subjective thing. As as long as someone in the C of S is BEING TOLD they are making it, they will be happy. I believe this is especially true for whether one is actually “Clear” or whether one has achieved the very vague “abilities gained” for each OT Level.
To DM’s credit, he is now “allowing” the flock to attain the lofty Bridge statuses that he has worked so hard to keep them from attaining for so long. Sure, he’s giving it to them quicky-style…but he’s now letting them HAVE IT.
And the flock will gobble it up. And the fact that so many in the flock will gobble it up will be all the “proof” DM needs that his strategy for world-wide clearing is working.
Of course you can’t clear the planet. And that should never be the goal of SCN. But most everyone in the flock will know someone close to them who has attested to Clear or OT recently, and it will create the illusion that planet-wide clearing is occurring, and this will really, really keep the flock blinded for quite some time. It’s going to get harder and harder to get people to wake up. This manufactured “success” will reinforce the idea that all the noise and attacks are just SPs railing against Freedom.
That’s my take on it.
That is a very well organized evaluation. I agree for the most part. The Death Spiral has a good chance of dragging on and on. And as we’ve seen they will be able to sell the buildings and pocket the cash which extends it even further. Fortunately for those who would like to see it end sooner, Miscavige is walking around in a state of insanity and I think we can count on him to make decisions that will hasten the pace. Also perhaps someday the FBI will investigate the charges of human trafficking and unlawful imprisonment. That would accelerate the demise dramatically.
I wonder if Miscavige shit his pants when he heard that there was a plane flying overhead with a “Where’s Shelly Miscavige?” banner. The guy’s already unstable, he may need to clean house and put his current senior staff in the hole next to the previous senior staff because after all they are ALL SP’s who are out to get him.
What you say may be true and maybe that’s what they (call them Smersh or the Vested Interests or whoever was going after the Church for over 30 years for “reasons of National Security” or that any healing or mental technology that wasn’t approved by the FDA, AMA or APA and actually achieved results was financial threat ) wanted and probably why the “War” ended in ’93 with the faux “Victory” announced at the LA Sports Arena.
Probably because they knew that under Miscavige’s so called “leadership” it was no longer a threat to the status quo.
And would become just another insignificant cult run by an insignificant cult leader who is trying to be so significant.
Maybe so. Maybe not.
But who really cares.
As far as I’m concerned the Government Approved and Tax Exempt Church of Scientology for me has lost any legitimacy.
They and that little slimy hybrid of a weasel and a squirrel can go to hell as far as I’m concerned.
(The irony is that whatever public and staff left are convinced that it is all us “SPs”, “disaffects” and “defrocked apostates” or whatever out here that the threat is over here when in fact it is standing right in front of them at every “event” reading another Shermanesque “speech” that would take the whole “Farm” (what they call the banks of computers at NSA) decrypt.)
Like Mr Phelps tape recorder in the original Mission Impossible it is set to self destruct.
Is just a question of time.
In any case “the secretary will disavow any knowledge of” his actions.
Deep, I agree with your eval in-so-far as the auditing side of the Bridge goes, and in-so-far as the RCS’s deep pockets keeping them theoretically around for decades, but IMO the decline of the RCS will escalate faster because of the slows, barriers and out-tech that Gat II will put on the training side.
Whoever is around to go in session can only be audited by whatever auditors are around. I don’t see auditors being made in volume with GAT II. Forget about clearing a planet, auditors are needed to clear the ones who will bite on the quickied auditing.
In my old org in a major US city there is currently ONE auditor on staff. ONE. If all of a sudden, their old Div 2 field were resuscitated and all gung ho for their Grades, there would be a backlog for YEARS. Now, that’s just my old org, but if it is typical of other Class V orgs, forget about all these young’uns going Clear because there aren’t enough auditors to do the job. I mean, they can’t all go to Flag, and even if they did, that would be leave the Class V orgs high and dry, which has been the scene for 7 years now.
Sorry, I’m with LRH on the vital necessity for making auditors in volume – to even clear your own block, let alone the planet.
Also, Deep, I wholeheartedly agree that GAT II is DM’s “save his ass” program, so that he can spin out the rest of his time in glory. Its a sandbagging kind of thing he’s doing, with GAT II.
Great blog questions:
First, I think your estimates may be high, but I will go with them.
Second, I am an “under the radar” OT 7, Grad 5, ex-staff, 30+ years in. When I saw GAT1, I did one course then left. I have no interest in the church and would never go back. I use some of the tech, especially basic auditing skills and such. I could not care less of the dictates of DM or the church of KSW. I studied, and like any other study, I use what I want and discard the rest. I got me back, but it took years after leaving.
Third, I got caught up in LRH’s great lie that one will “walk on water” or “be total cause of life” and by the proclamation that “LRH was the only one that made it…it is all taped.” This to me is what traps those still remaining. If you believe it, it is hard to leave. I no longer in any way believe those ideas. When I finally got that, leaving was simple.
Fourth, I am “long gone” or “under the radar”…hard to define, I suppose, as I use some of the tech. I use mathematics, but I do not define myself as a “mathematician.” I do not want my name associated to blogging or SCN, merely as a business consideration.
Fifth, I believe this GAOT2 will cut the remaining group in half. Very few will tolerate having to re-do the bridge. Those left, including SO, may total 7000, and then that will be it.
Mike Laws says
Being gone for a while, you might have missed KSW being replaced with KDIP … Keeping DM in Power.
Good one Mike! 🙂
Very interesting point, on the mathematician. You’ve given me food for thought, thank you. I stopped considering myself a Scientologist in the past year, even though this year I made it back onto OT7 and am continuing.
Part of leaving the church, for me, has meant giving up on labels.
Reminds me of a friend I know, and respect.
I’m pretty much totally gone. Fringe for a bit, but I saw a person I respected and worked with get declared, so it’s game over for me.
Doug Parent says
“Part of leaving the church, for me, has meant giving up on labels.” Helpful for me as well. Also giving up my image and illusions about Ron Hubbard while being able to also maintain a healthy respect for the technology he had a part in codifying. I see it as a process of “graduating Scientology”.
I recall, though not from what publication or book, LRH saying that we all had to graduate, even from scientology. I quietly held my graduation ceremony well over 4 decades ago. What wins/gains I had (personally signficant) remain with me. All the dreck was left behind. And most pleased to see that others can still access the best of the tech via the Indies, without all the crapola Hubbard left behind.
Odd Thomas says
“Third, I got caught up in LRH’s great lie that one will “walk on water” or “be total cause of life” and by the proclamation that “LRH was the only one that made it…it is all taped.” This to me is what traps those still remaining. If you believe it, it is hard to leave. I no longer in any way believe those ideas. When I finally got that, leaving was simple”
Wow — your third point set me back on my heels a bit. It’s something I have had to deal with as I’ve gone through my own reclamation project. During this bit of self-analysis, I did look at one aspect of the RCS that I have always disagreed with. This being the “Marketing” of spiritual gains. Viscerally, I hated it, often without being able to put my finger on why I did. I think I have accomplished at least that now, by looking at it in this way.
Spiritual gains are very subjective; they are very personal. They mean something different for every one of us and they belong in our own personal universes. They aren’t meant to be compared with treadmills, motorcycles, wrinkle-free cremes or anything else that is the focus of Marketing. And yet — these wins, these states of being or attainment, have been marketed like soft drinks for decades and we are now suffering the fate of that failed experiment.
Comparing the potential gains of OT 3 to some Star Wars’ phenomena is pointless and debasing, It denigrates those gains because those gains — are subjective. They are not a stronger cinnamon flavor or a more sparkling aftertaste. They mean something quite ethereal to THE person experiencing them. Maybe he does feel lighter, more a spirit, more at cause over the small innocuous things that populate his life and have nothing whatsoever to do with Super Powers, straight out of a comic book.
“Walking on water” equates to Jesus, equates to Son of God and enters a whole other realm of possibilities that immediately devalues whoever tries to compare their win or their gain to that iconic statement.
Maybe it’s just my perspective, but I don’t hold LRH to a God-like status – never have. So I never associated the Man with Super Powers, that went beyond what I personally was capable of thinking with. I am a child of 1950s comics. I loved Super Man and Brianiac, Flash and Thor. I was enthralled fully and completely when Star Trek aired in 1966 – man did I want to ride in that Starship. So, I was predisposed to believing things that were pretty far out, because they were real to me. But it always was a very personal matter.
I don’t know who decided to Market SCN gains as Madison Avenue would – it was a huge mistake. Going “Mad Men” with OT III and other levels, only served these important milestones up for ridicule. Most of us simply wanted our gains to remain private and personal. Thanks Jonsty.
Great post Odd, plus 1 for me!!
Good point OT.
I agree one of the points of decline IMHO is when management sought out so called “experts” in the field of “perception management” like Hill & Knowlton who were the ones who concocted the babies being thrown out of incubators story in order to garner support in “liberating” their client the emirate of Kuwait which they also falsely conveyed as a “democracy”.
Now they used some design firm who designed Apple products back in the ’80’s to design that piece of shit they call the “Ultra”.
Before that there was this whole effort to make Scientology “mainstream” which I thought was total idiocy by turning the Organizations into something resembling Bestbuy with all the staff being forced to resemble geeky “sales associates”.
What this did was turn the Orgs into some Dilbertain imitation of Corporate America.
Our estimate on South African membership, based on attendance for the most historic event in history just 10 days ago: 500 in Joburg, 120 in Pretoria, 120 in Durban and 250 between Cape Town and Port Elizabeth. 990 for South Africa. However the way the new management here is scything it’s way through the field I recon we’ll be below 700 by March 13.
I heard through the grape vine that Melbourne Aus had about 200 attendees, don’t know about Sydney but guaranteed Brisbane would have had about 20 and that’s probably an over estimate. Anyone out there know how many for Sydney?
To give you a little point of reference I belong to a church that has roughly 400 members there every week & about 200 of those are involved in some way throughout the week at something.
Our denomination in our city has roughly 12 churches and a total of around 3000 members (who are there week in week out). And we in our city, which a has a population of roughly 700,000, are considers one of the smaller Christian denominations.
So if our ‘small’ denomination, in a relatively small city has a 5th of COS’s worldwide active membership I think that puts a very stark perspective on ‘the fastest growing religion in the world’
Joe Schmo says
Wow – this puts into words EXACTLY what I have been thinking as to how RCS is going to go down and what’s going to end up happening with this Idle Morgues. They will financially collapse, requiring bailout from Int Finance (or Cont Finance, who will be forced at gunpoint to pony up the needed funds). The collapses will start with the outer orgs first, the ones farthest from CLOs like Buffalo and Seattle, then as central financial resources from the CLO become less available for bailouts, the demise will spiral in closer to home.
Int Finance will then start to sell the buildings right out from under the local parishoners and the money will go to Int and perhaps a paltry sum spent locally to get the failing org into smaller quarters (maybe); more likely the local parishioners will be left to handle the dunning creditors themselves and Int will cite various LRH finance policies, Comm Ev the EC, make whatever is left of the field and staff pay for some smaller apartment or office and send some moron from Cont level to the org to run the “org”.
But all of this is still a few years away at least. I personally can’t wait to see it happen.
Jane Doe says
Thank you for the excellent article Mike. And I appreciate Joe Schmo’s comments too.
I had been wondering how many UTR (under the radars) there were and your figures correspond to the people I personally know who are UTR to keep from losing loved ones to disconnection. This article is one of your best and most needed one. It really does put the handwriting on the wall as to what will happen. It also tells the UTR’s you are not alone and there are many many like you, which may make them feel safer to eventually come out.
And re the Ideal Orgs that people paid for with cash yet the Int Landlord holds the Deed on them… that alone is criminal and I wish we could sue them for that. I see DM’s strategy for that though. Remember the LRH reference on FP-1 where he says that an org will spend what it makes. And to have money you have to trick yourself by having money “hidden” in untouchable reserves, which you invest in things that you can liquidate in an emergency, but which may take longer to liquidate than say going to a bank account. I am paraphrasing the ref and hope someone here has the Green Vols and can provide the title and date to that article.
So I can see that DM cooked up owning lots of real estate, Ideal Orgs, so that if the going gets tough, all he has to do is sell, and he can sell at a loss since he never paid a dime of it, so it is all profit to him, and this is how he will get money in a pinch. Or this is how he will get money just prior to his blowing to some other country to live with all his booty once he figures out the gig is up.